گزارش تحلیلی بیزنس مانیتور از بازار ایران - پیش بینی تا 2023 (گزارش انگلیسی)

اختصاصی از فی بوو گزارش تحلیلی بیزنس مانیتور از بازار ایران - پیش بینی تا 2023 (گزارش انگلیسی) دانلود با لینک مستقیم و پر سرعت .

Business Forecast Report - Iran - Q4 2014

Business Forecast Report - Iran - Q4 2014

 

BMI Research

Executive Summary

Core Views

Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Ratings

Domestic Politics

Nuclear Talks: Regional Implications

A breakdown or a breakthrough in nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 will have immense regional implications. Increased

economic opportunities from a breakthrough would significantly benefit Gulf Cooperation Council states, although Saudi Arabia would

see its geopolitical clout reduced. A positive conclusion of talks would also facilitate a political solution to the civil war in Syria over the

next five to 10 years, with positive implications for stability in Lebanon and Iraq.

TABLE: Political Overview

TABLE: Possible Scenarios As Diplomacy Advances

TABLE: Syria - Long-Term Scenarios

Long-Term Political Outlook

Regime Change Likely By The Next Decade

Although Iran's Islamic regime has proved resilient in the face of tremendous domestic and external pressure, we believe that it cannot

continue in its present form indefinitely. Consequently, we expect to see 'regime change' by the next decade, either through gradual

reform or a popular uprising.

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Economic Risk Ratings

Economic Activity

Modest Expansion In 2014 And 2015

We forecast real GDP growth of 3.2% and 2.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, from a 2.9% contraction in 2013. The return to growth

will be the result of improving relations with the West, more effective macroeconomic management and low base effects. The lack of a

breakthrough in nuclear talks will ensure that foreign direct investment - particularly by Western companies - remains limited.

TABLE: Possible Scenarios As Diplomacy Advances

TABLE: Economic Activity

Monetary Policy

Inflationary Environment Improving In 2014 And 2015

Inflationary pressure in Iran will be lower in H214 and 2015 compared to 2013. This will provide Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with

the necessary public support to continue talks with the P5+1 countries on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme.

TABLE: Monetary Policy

Banking Sector I

Reform Only In The Medium Term

Declining inflation and an improved macroeconomic environment will improve the outlook for Iranian banks in 2014. That said, risks to

the stability of the industry will remain elevated this year. The government will seek to implement structural reform to the sector, which

will decrease systemic risk over the next five years.

Banking Sector II

Negative Real Interest Rates Affecting Stability

Despite gradually declining price pressures in Iran, real interest rates will remain in negative territory until 2018, while the elevated nonperforming

loan ratio will hinder borrowing. As a result, the banking sector will remain in a crisis situation despite the slowly improving

macroeconomic environment.

Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast

The Iranian Economy To 2023

Significant Challenges Ahead

The inability of Iran to fully exploit its enormous oil & gas wealth will keep real GDP growth rates averaging 4.0% over the next 10 years,

below the strong potential of the country's economy. Iran's youthful demographics mean that private consumption and investment will

primarily drive this growth.

TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts

Chapter 4: Business Environment

SWOT Analysis

BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings

Business Environment Outlook

Institutions

TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS

Infrastructure

TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING

TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY

TABLE: MENA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS

Market Orientation

TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS

Operational Risk

Chapter 5: Key Sectors

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

TABLE: Phar maceutical Sales , Hist orical Data And Forecasts

TABLE: Healthcare Expe nditure Tre nds , Hist orical Data And Forecasts

TABLE: Gover nment Healthcare Expe nditure Tre nds , Hist orical Data And Forecasts

TABLE: Pri vate Healthcare Expe nditure Tre nds , Hist orical Data And Forecasts

Telecommunications

TABLE: Telec oms Sect or - Mobile - Hist orical Data & Forecasts

TABLE: Telec oms Sect or - Wireli ne - Hist orical Data & Forecasts

Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions

Global Outlook

Global Recovery Still On Track

Table: Global Assumptions

Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP Growt H, %

Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOM BERG CON SENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %

Table : Emergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %

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